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The stakes are high for Donald Trump in his debate with Kamala Harris

A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:

The last presidential debate was one of the most consequential in history, leading President Biden to drop out of the race. Tonight, his replacement as the Democratic nominee, Vice President Harris, gets her chance to take on former President Donald Trump. So how should Trump go at his new challenger onstage? Let's ask Doug Heye, a Republican strategist who is a former communications director for the Republican National Committee. Doug, so Donald Trump has shown that his debate strategy is pretty much no-holds-barred. Will that still work tonight?

DOUG HEYE: I don't think that works tonight, but it also, I think, should present him an opportunity if he can do the thing that is usually the hardest thing for Donald Trump to do, and that's stay on message because he can't depend on Kamala Harris to fall over on her own like Biden did in front of everybody. So he has to prosecute the case. And the good news for Trump is on issue after issue, he is beating Harris in the polls - on issues like the economy, on immigration.

The whole conversation you just had on the Middle East, Trump is leading Harris and leading the Biden-Harris administration - words I would expect to hear throughout his conversation tonight. He has to prosecute that case and just work that over and over again to remind voters she's partially responsible for policies that they don't approve of.

MARTÍNEZ: Doug, do you think or do you know that in debate prep, he has been told to stay on message?

HEYE: Oh, I know, and, of course, he has, and he's been told that repeatedly. Donald Trump has this ability to stay on message when he wants to. The problem is when he goes off the script or goes off the teleprompter, that takes them into bad areas. And we've seen it in speeches. We've seen it in interviews. We've certainly seen it in debates, as well, before. If he can prosecute the case that's best for him to do - these are the issues where I'm beating her in the polls and beating the Biden-Harris administration - he can do well.

If he goes into different areas or starts making bizarre references, it allows Harris to really counterpunch him well and not just point out the weird issue that Democrats have been talking a lot about but also highlighting, you know, if we thought that Joe Biden was too old and not mentally with it enough to serve as president, well, you know, maybe this person is dealing with that same situation.

MARTÍNEZ: Right. He's now the old person, the oldest person in this race.

HEYE: Exactly.

MARTÍNEZ: So what does Trump need to avoid? Because I'm thinking about what Republican Nikki Haley recently said about how Trump needs to change the way he speaks about women. So, Doug, will the way he speaks to Harris tonight be a message to all female voters?

HEYE: Absolutely. And Harris is going to try and amplify that. And if you're Trump, just avoid the personal attacks that you would make anyways - that also don't really help you with expectation setting for the debate. Don't call your opponent dumb or stupid or any of those things that Donald Trump likes to do. One, you're lowering the bar for Harris' expectations for the debate. Two, you run the risk of women reacting extremely negatively to this. And the Harris campaign is poised to use that coming out of this debate.

MARTÍNEZ: The thing is, though, Doug...

HEYE: Focus on values. Stay off the personal.

MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. But the thing is, though, Doug, so I talked to my family, full of Trump supporters, who love that about him, who love the personal attacks. I mean, how is he going to resist not playing to exactly the reason why people like him?

HEYE: Well, if he wants to win, he can't just win with Trump supporters. Harris can't just win with Harris supporters. You know, there's a broad set of voters out there that - they don't really like Donald Trump. They don't know enough about Kamala Harris. And they're looking tonight for answers, and they're looking for answers on policy. Now, Donald Trump is going to take a hunk of sand, and he's going to throw it in Kamala Harris' face.

And how she reacts to that is going to be very important for her. We don't know what that sand is going to be. That's what Donald Trump does. But if it's just a series of name-calling or going down bizarre paths that aren't relevant to voters - OK, his supporters are going to be really enthusiastic about it, but those voters who are looking for answers aren't going to get them.

MARTÍNEZ: That's former Republican National Committee communications director Doug Heye. Doug, thanks.

HEYE: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

A Martínez is one of the hosts of Morning Edition and Up First. He came to NPR in 2021 and is based out of NPR West.