STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
The fertility rate in the United States has fallen to the lowest level ever recorded. A new federal study found roughly 700,000 fewer babies were born in the United States last year compared with the peak in 2007. This decline worries many researchers, although it's driven in part by one welcome development, which is a big drop in teen pregnancies. NPR's Brian Mann is covering this story. Brian, good morning.
BRIAN MANN, BYLINE: Good morning, Steve.
INSKEEP: OK. So a dramatic year, but what is a longer-term trend in which this happens?
MANN: This has been building for nearly two decades. For a long time, U.S. birth rates were really stable and robust compared with countries in Asia and Europe. But then, Steve, came the Great Recession in 2007. The U.S. fertility rate started sliding, and it has just kept dropping year after year. Brady Hamilton is the lead researcher. He worked on this new study released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
BRADY HAMILTON: Since 2007, there's been a decline in the general fertility rate of 23%.
MANN: A 23% drop, Steve - that's really big. It already means hundreds of thousands fewer babies born in the U.S. every year.
INSKEEP: And why does that matter?
MANN: Well, a growing number of economists and demographers say this is changing the fabric of society in the US. Americans are growing older. Population growth is already slowing dramatically. And until recently - and this is interesting - these changes were masked by immigration. A lot of young people were coming into the U.S. - some legally, some without legal status. Those people joined the workforce. They started families. But now, of course, the Trump administration has dramatically reduced the number of migrants in the U.S. I spoke with Melissa Kearney, an economist at the University of Notre Dame. She says these two trends combined - fewer U.S. babies and fewer migrants - these are game-changers.
MELISSA KEARNEY: The demographics of the country are opposing headwinds. If we're going to have a low-fertility and a low-immigration regime, we're going to have to dramatically raise tax rates. And we're going to have to take meaningful steps to invest in all the things that will make us more productive with fewer working-age people.
MANN: And, Steve, this is coming at the U.S. really fast. A census report released earlier this year found population growth in the U.S. has already dropped by 50% in just one year, from 2024 to 2025.
INSKEEP: Wow. We have been a growing nation, and now we're starting to look a little more like Japan or China or European countries, where they face all these declines. But I would imagine that this is by a lot of people's choice. Some people may feel better in this environment. Individuals, I mean.
MANN: Yeah. That's right. And there are upsides, silver linings in this. You mentioned teen pregnancies, down 7% in 2025. That's a major public health win. I spoke about this with Martha Bailey. She heads the California Center for Population Research.
MARTHA BAILEY: For a long time, policymakers were trying to figure out how we could lower teen birth rates in the United States. It's really hard to finish high school if you're having a baby. It's hard to go to college if you're having a baby.
MANN: And it's not just teens who are benefiting from this shift. Women in their 20s - they're having far fewer babies, and there's research showing they often fare significantly better.
INSKEEP: Brian, there are public officials who would like to reverse this trend. There may be other people who want to reverse this trend. Can we assume the pendulum to swing back? Can we assume the pendulum would swing back the other way?
MANN: It's a really good question. After the Great Recession happened, some experts thought fertility rates would just bounce back naturally. That hasn't happened. Now some economists think maybe more women will eventually have babies when they're older, in their late 30s or 40s. There are signs that's happening, but not fast enough to reverse this downward trend.
INSKEEP: NPR's Brian Mann, thanks.
MANN: Thank you, Steve. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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