LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Let's dig a little deeper into this temporary truce right now between Israel and Lebanon with Maha Yahya. She heads the Carnegie Middle East Center, and she is based in Beirut. Good morning, Maha, and thank you for joining me this morning.
MAHA YAHYA: Good morning, Leila. Thank you for having me.
FADEL: So right now, what is the situation like? Now, how is the ceasefire being received in Beirut?
YAHYA: With a massive sigh of relief. I think people are just, at least, happy with even a 10-day reprieve from the bombing. We're exhausted, period.
FADEL: Yeah.
YAHYA: We're exhausted. Now, everybody's aware of the challenges, but at least for now, there's relief from the bombing.
FADEL: Well, let's talk about those challenges. I mean, the secretary of state here in the U.S., Marco Rubio, announced the Lebanon-Israel - that Lebanon and Israel would be meeting during this time, and he called it a, quote, "historic opportunity." These are two countries that have had no relations, have been enemies for decades. And he called it a historic opportunity to end Hezbollah's influence inside Lebanon, the Iran-backed Lebanese group. Is it actually the historic opportunity he describes?
YAHYA: I mean, it's historic in the sense that, yes, this is the first time where you have direct negotiations between Lebanese officials or a direct meeting between Lebanese officials and Israeli officials. Will that lead to a permanent peace agreement or even a permanent cessation of hostilities? - is a big question mark. There are too many factors that come into play. The first being, what does Israel intend to do? So long as Israel continues to occupy parts of Lebanon, it's giving credence to the narrative of resistance. Lebanese individuals, many of whom come from these areas that are occupied, will say, we have a right to resist an occupying army. And many of them will, you know - even if they're not Hezbollah, they would become Hezbollah. So that's one set of challenges.
FADEL: Yeah. Well, let me ask about that because these talks and this agreement is between Israel and Lebanon. But the battle, the fight is between Israel and Hezbollah, which is a paramilitary, yes, but the - it is a legitimate political force in Lebanon with seats in the parliament and the cabinet. Can these negotiations go anywhere if Hezbollah is not part of or supportive of them?
YAHYA: Yes and no. I - well, again, there are a couple of sides to this.
FADEL: Yeah.
YAHYA: First, the - on the side of - for Hezbollah itself, frankly, disarming any kind of armed nonstate actor, as international experience shows us, takes time. It's a combination of an internal political process as well as the actual disarmament process. Look at Latin America, look at Africa. There are many experiences around the world which tell us how to go about - Ireland - how to go about something like this. So without an internal dialogue around what it means to maintain the political entity of Hezbollah, but disarm, that's one set of challenges. Two, of course, Iran has a say, because the military arm of Hezbollah is very much under the influence and, frankly, direct management of the IRGC in Iran. So this - the ceasefire in Lebanon needs to be seen as part of this larger negotiation that is taking place between the U.S. and Iran.
Now, there is an attempt to separate the two files but - by having direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel. But the channels for Lebanon has been that over the past year and something since the last ceasefire, the international community, the United States and many others have been treating the disarmament of Hezbollah and the strengthening of state institutions as two competing agendas. The bottom line is you cannot disarm any - for any country, not just for Lebanon - you cannot disarm an armed nonstate actor that has often acted and has often proved to be stronger than the state in some places without strengthening central state institutions. These are not complete agendas.
FADEL: So at this...
YAHYA: And I think that's...
FADEL: Yeah.
YAHYA: ...The other challenge.
FADEL: So at this point, the Lebanese government is weaker than the nonstate actor. So can it actually do anything if an agreement is even made?
YAHYA: Look, it's weaker in the sense of the physical force, the ability to have sovereignty over all, you know, military means.
FADEL: Right.
YAHYA: But it is the legitimate representative of the country. So it's much stronger in terms of international legitimacy, international support, ability to go to the international courts. So they need to work together is what I'm trying to say.
FADEL: I see.
YAHYA: So where as - so it's not just about military might 'cause at the end of the day, even for Israel, if the ultimate goal is peace and security, it's not going to get peace and security, neither for Israelis nor for the Lebanese under the barrel of a gun. And so long as Israel continues to occupy Lebanese territory, we will not see peace and security this region.
FADEL: We heard from the Lebanese president just a few moments ago that the focus of these talks and to ensure that the ceasefire stands, would have to be that Israel withdraws from the South Lebanon, where it occupies, right now, that they would have to return detainees, that southern Lebanese residents would have to return, and that no armed groups would be present in those areas. What are the conditions necessary for a lasting peace between the two sides at this point, especially given that these villages have been flattened and this land is occupied?
YAHYA: Well, Israeli withdrawal for certain. Back to the blue line, finalizing the border demarcation between Lebanon and Israel. There are still - I mean, most of it is done. There's still about 13 points, I think some of - where there's some contention. That's on the Israeli side. You need an international force to guarantee that there won't be any military activity on the - from the Israeli end in Lebanon. And from the Lebanese and, obviously, strengthening the army, disarming all armed nonstate actors, primarily Hezbollah, but also other groups. Strengthening the central state, and this is where we need a lot more international support. Rebuilding, allowing people to go back home. All of these things are things that Israel is saying it will not allow.
FADEL: Maha Yahya is director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. Thank you for your time.
YAHYA: Thank you, Leila. I appreciate it.
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