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Chinese public is divided over whether to seek global dominance or share leadership

People use smartphones to film planes fly in formation during a military parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Beijing on Wednesday.
Rafiq Maqbool
/
AP
People use smartphones to film planes fly in formation during a military parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Beijing on Wednesday.

TAIPEI, Taiwan — A new study on Chinese citizens' views on foreign affairs has found a majority of people do not view the United States as a friend, but also favor a nuanced approach toward Washington.

The survey, released this week by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs think tank in partnership with The Carter Center, also reveals that the top two perceived threats to China both involve the United States.

A majority of the Chinese people polled believe that U.S. economic competition and "possible conflict" with Washington over Taiwan present major threats to their nation, while opinion is split on what role Beijing should play on the world stage.

Chinese surveyed prefer Russia and North Korea, not the U.S., as their friend

The study offers a unique insight into the views of everyday Chinese citizens on international relations.

It comes as China's president, Xi Jinping, hosted the leaders of North Korea, Russia and two dozen other countries in Beijing this week for an elaborate military parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, in a message to the United States and its democratic allies, according to analysts.

The poll shows that only 17% of those surveyed in China viewed the U.S. as a friend of their country, the lowest percentage of all nations that were asked about.

Meanwhile, 55% said that economic competition with the U.S. was a major threat to China.

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Less than two weeks after taking office earlier this year, President Trump imposed new tariffs on China, sparking an escalatory and reciprocal rise in import levies between Washington and Beijing that was only assuaged by the start of trade negotiations in May.

But despite largely not viewing Washington as a friend, in the face of an unstable trans-Pacific relationship, 61% of those surveyed said China should balance its approach to Washington, cooperating in a friendly manner, or limiting U.S. power when appropriate.

Chinese people who see Washington as economically stronger are more likely to favor friendly cooperation. Those who see Beijing as stronger are more likely to favor actively limiting American power, the report says.

In contrast, large majorities in China consider Russia (83%) and North Korea (76%) as being their country's friend, and a majority did not view U.S. regional allies South Korea, Japan or the Philippines as friends of China, which reflects the Beijing government's views.

Chinese leaders are trying to capitalize on the current instability in the international order

As Washington hits friends and foes across the world with tariffs, leaders in Beijing have tried to capitalize on the instability unleashed on the international system.

"China would like to position itself as an advocate for more international institutionalism and free trade," said Ja Ian Chong, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.

At a recent meeting of leaders from nations not aligned with the West, Chinese leader Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of multilateralism and trade. "We should safeguard the U.N.-centered international system, and support the multilateral trading system with the [World Trade Organization] at its core," Xi said.

The sentiments are echoed by China's population. According to the study, 73% believed that international trade was good for China's overall economy and standard of living, while 60% preferred a policy of global free trade.

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But analysts like Chong say China's rhetoric on free trade and multilateralism has outstripped its substantive actions.

"[China] talks a language of liberalism because it can because it gains traction that way, but its behavior lags behind its language," Chong said.

Chinese citizen's attitudes to trade match U.S. domestic polling, also done by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, suggesting that some 55% of Americans now also want the U.S. to pursue a global free trade agenda, despite Trump's tariffs on many U.S. trading partners of late.

The majority of Chinese polled think the U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan is a major threat

Researchers also found that some 57% of respondents listed the U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan as a major threat to their country.

The U.S. does not recognize Taiwan as a sovereign country, but sells arms to Taipei and maintains an intentionally vague policy of "strategic ambiguity" about whether it would respond militarily in case of a Chinese attack.

Beijing views Taiwan as its own territory and has never renounced the use of force to bring Taipei under its control. In recent years, China has increased pressure on the democratic island and its government.

In the face of Chinese threats, Taiwan launched its largest ever live-fire military exercises in July. The drills featured newly acquired Abrams tanks and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, known as HIMARS, both purchased from the U.S.

Researchers found that Chinese people viewed Taiwanese people highly. 91% said they believed the Taiwanese population was friendly. However, only 44% viewed the government in Taipei in the same way.

Chinese favor Beijing's participation in world affairs, but unsure if it should dominate the world

The study found that 90% of Chinese people supported their country's participation in world affairs. This contrasts with U.S. domestic opinion.

Research published by the Pew Research Center in May suggests fewer than 50% of Americans believe it is best for the future of the U.S. to be active in world affairs.

While Washington has withdrawn from several multilateral organizations, in recent years China has boosted its presence in these entities and worked to create other initiatives.

For example, in 2013, Beijing began pushing for engagement with countries around the world through its Belt and Road initiative (BRI). The BRI is a major infrastructure, investment and economic cooperation strategy that has seen Chinese firms engage in business and construction across much of the globe.

As of July 2025, some 150 countries had signed cooperation agreements with China under the BRI framework.

With China increasingly engaged in international affairs, the study found that 97% of its population believed the country was now in at least a somewhat strong position in the world.

"We do see a high degree of confidence in China, in the Chinese public, in their country, and the direction that the government is taking their country," said Dina Smeltz, vice president of public opinion and foreign policy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

But what to do with this new strength is unclear, she added.

"There's some mixed opinions on a few things about leadership: whether it should be a shared role or whether China should have a dominant role in world affairs," Smeltz explained.

While 48% believed that China should take on a shared leadership role in the international system, 41% said it should take on a dominant role.

Copyright 2025 NPR

Jan Camenzind Broomby